Introduction



Often we are interested in finding patterns which appear over a space of time. These patterns occur in many areas; the pattern of commands someone uses in instructing a computer, sequences of words in sentences, the sequence of phonemes in spoken words - any area where a sequence of events occurs could produce useful patterns.

Consider the simple example of someone trying to deduce the weather from a piece of seaweed - folklore tells us that `soggy' seaweed means wet weather, while `dry' seaweed means sun. If it is in an intermediate state (`damp'), then we cannot be sure. However, the state of the weather is not restricted to the state of the seaweed, so we may say on the basis of an examination that the weather is probably raining or sunny. A second useful clue would be the state of the weather on the preceding day (or, at least, its probable state) - by combining knowledge about what happened yesterday with the observed seaweed state, we might come to a better forecast for today.

This is typical of the type of system we will consider in this tutorial.

  • First we will introduce systems which generate probabalistic patterns in time, such as the weather fluctuating between sunny and rainy.

  • We then look at systems where what we wish to predict is not what we observe - the underlying system is hidden. In the above example, the observed sequence would be the seaweed and the hidden system would be the actual weather.

  • We then look at some problems that can be solved once the system has been modeled. For the above example, we may want to know

    1. What the weather was for a week given each day's seaweed observation.

    2. Given a sequence of seaweed observations, is it winter or summer? Intuitively, if the seaweed has been dry for a while it may be summer, if it has been soggy for a while it might be winter.